AGP Executive Report

Semiconductor Race: China’s memory makers CXMT and YMTC move toward IPOs in Shanghai, intensifying pressure on Samsung and SK hynix as AI-driven demand lifts the sector. Geopolitics—Taiwan Strait: China’s military says it tracked a Dutch frigate through the Taiwan Strait and vows high alert to protect “sovereignty and security.” Security Procurement: Indonesia’s police are shopping for Chinese hi-tech policing gear, including counterterror drones, surveillance systems and bomb-disposal robots. South Asia—Kashmir: Pakistan rejects India’s Gilgit-Baltistan election remarks, reiterating Kashmir as an internationally disputed territory. South Asia—Border Tensions: India says repatriations from Bangladesh follow a bilateral process requiring Bangladeshi nationality checks, as “push-in” allegations flare. Energy & Markets: Iran’s crude sells at discounts to China as demand from refiners weakens amid sanctions pressure. Finance: India’s central bank keeps the repo rate at 5.25% while citing risks from the Middle East conflict. Tech & Infrastructure: AirTrunk’s $30b India data-centre push gets Modi’s spotlight as AI infrastructure races ahead.

Japan Budget & Gender Hiring: Japan’s parliament passed a ¥3.11 trillion yen supplementary budget to cushion energy-cost shocks, while women hit a record 41.9% share of new central government hires. China North Korea Pivot: Xi Jinping will visit North Korea next week for the first time since 2019, as Pyongyang pushes nuclear ambitions and seeks more trade and tourism. India–US Trade Talks: Trump said a deal with India is “nearly done,” with USTR also signaling respect for tariff caps in EU and Japan arrangements. India Energy & Investment Rules: India’s oil minister met Venezuela’s acting president to deepen energy ties; India is also considering easing bilateral investment treaty rules to attract investors. Renewables Deal: Inox Clean Energy agreed to buy Vena Energy India’s 6 GW renewable portfolio, boosting its operating and pipeline scale. China Economy & Tech: China’s services trade rose 4.9% in Jan–Apr, and AI is powering everything from unmanned delivery fleets in Qingdao to “world model” home-generation research. Regional Flashpoints: China urged the EU to amend cybersecurity and industrial rules at the WTO, and renewed its pushback on Japan-linked museum wording over the Nanjing Massacre.

India-Venezuela Energy Push: Modi hosted interim President Delcy Rodriguez in New Delhi, with India calling Venezuelan oil an “opportunity” as it expands crude imports amid supply worries. Bangladesh-India Border Tensions: Dhaka accused India of multiple attempts to push people into Bangladesh over 24 hours, reviving disputes over undocumented migration. Pacific Islands Forum: Women leaders meeting in Suva, Fiji, focused on moving from policy to action on gender-based violence, women’s health, disability inclusion and leadership across the Blue Pacific. China Battery Outlook: CATL expects energy storage to hit 50% of global battery sales by 2030, driven by renewables and grid-side storage demand. Japan Nuclear Plan: Japan is looking to replace up to five aging reactors by the 2040s as part of a push to keep power supply stable. China-Taiwan Flashpoint: A leaked video of Singapore troops training in Taiwan adds pressure as Taipei weighs deterrence amid US-China dynamics. US Strike in Eastern Pacific: A US operation against a suspected drug boat killed two, continuing “Southern Spear” despite focus elsewhere. India Fire Tragedy: A hotel blaze in New Delhi killed at least 21, with dozens rescued. Nepal Tea Exports Hit Again: India resumed mandatory sampling and lab testing for Nepali tea, disrupting shipments after recent relaxed rules. China Spying Warnings: Five Eyes says Chinese spies are using fake job recruitment on platforms like LinkedIn to target people with sensitive access.

Indo-Pacific Drills: The Philippines sent the newly commissioned BRP Miguel Malvar to RIMPAC 2026 in Hawaii, marking Manila’s return to the major maritime exercise since 2022 and underscoring its push for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Quad Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Quad leaders’ meeting is aimed for later this year, potentially alongside another Indo-Pacific summit, after recent energy and critical-minerals talks in New Delhi. China-Taiwan Tensions: China imposed travel bans on New Zealand lawmakers over a Taiwan trip, while also urging New Zealand to follow the one-China principle. China-EU Trade Friction: China urged the EU to treat bilateral ties objectively as Brussels weighs new restrictions, with both sides trading barbs over “de-risking” and forced-labour claims. India Energy & Finance: India moved to lure foreign capital amid rupee pressure, with tax cuts and easier access for overseas bond investors reportedly on the table. Defence Boost: India received its fourth Russian S-400 squadron, while DRDO and the IAF also completed successful RudraM-II missile trials. Logistics & Trade: The China-Laos Railway hit 107,900 tonnes of cross-border fruits since the year began, as rail cuts transit times and costs. Weather Watch: Delhi-NCR braces for monsoon-linked rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Espionage Alert: Five Eyes agencies say Chinese military intelligence is using LinkedIn, Indeed and Upwork-style job platforms to recruit people with access to sensitive information, posing as HR firms or think tanks and pushing targets for “non-public” details. China-US Trade: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent says China is “very interested” in buying more Boeing planes ahead of Xi’s September visit, while Washington and Beijing set up a new board to manage tariff changes. India Aviation: Air India welcomed India’s ₹10,000 crore ATF price stabilisation fund as West Asia-linked fuel costs keep pressure on airlines. India Energy Transition: Hardeep Singh Puri says a 1% shift to ethanol-powered vehicles could save India nearly Rs 195 crore in forex, with E85 rolling out via designated stations. Pacific Politics: Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale says he will review a secretive 2022 security pact with Beijing after concerns about Chinese access in the South Pacific. New Zealand-China Tensions: Four Kiwi MPs banned from China for a year after a Taiwan visit, as NZSIS warns Kiwis with sensitive info could be targeted by Chinese spies via online networking. Weather Watch: Tropical Storm Amanda forms in the eastern Pacific as forecasters track possible further development.

US-India Trade Tension: The U.S. proposes up to 12.5% additional tariffs on imports from India and 59 other economies under Section 301 over alleged forced-labour failures, while India says it is still engaged with Washington on the issue and on finalising a framework for a broader trade deal. Japan-Demography Shock: Japan’s fertility rate fell again to a record low 1.14 in 2025, with births dropping to about 671,000, deepening labour and social-security pressures. China EV Push in Africa: BYD’s share in Africa’s EV market jumped to 35% in 2025, as Tesla bets on Morocco and Chinese rivals expand charging and sales. India Exam System Fallout: India moved top CBSE officials after complaints of grading errors tied to a digital marking system, with students calling for protests. Antitrust Watch: India’s CCI opened scrutiny into Mrs India Inc over alleged unfair terms for married-women beauty pageants. Regional Maritime Politics: Taiwan urged Japan and the Philippines to consider its overlapping rights as they begin maritime boundary talks. Sports Diplomacy: New Zealand announced an all-format home tour against India starting Oct 22, highlighting Asia-Pacific cricket ties.

Indo-Pacific Security: At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth urged regional partners to do more as doubts grow over Washington’s focus amid the Iran war and China’s military rise. Japan Watch: Japan kept quiet on yen warnings as the currency nears the 160 per dollar level, signaling a more measured approach after earlier intervention had limited impact. India–Neighbourhood: India rejected UK involvement in resolving the Nepal–India border dispute, insisting issues be handled bilaterally. India–Myanmar: India welcomed Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing for talks on trade and security, highlighting New Delhi’s push to counter Chinese influence. China–Africa: A feature on China-Africa people-to-people exchanges spotlights shared culture and work links, from Zambia’s mines to everyday life across the continent. China–Trade/Tech: WeRide plans a Madrid commercial robotaxi pilot with Uber and AVOMO, while China’s grain-trading push with Kazakhstan points to more regional food supply planning. Business/Markets: Japan’s Nikkei slipped from record highs as traders weighed fragile Middle East peace talks. Public Safety: Separate road crashes in India killed 10 and injured 40+; Japan also saw bear attacks in Fukushima injuring four.

Japan–Iran Shipping: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi urged “free and safe” passage through the Strait of Hormuz in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, as both sides discuss easing access to essential goods and medicines amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace efforts. Typhoon Jangmi Disrupts Japan: Storm Jangmi battered Okinawa and is moving toward Kyushu, triggering evacuations, power outages, and major flight cancellations. China Demographics Push: China is boosting childcare subsidies to tackle a plunging birth rate, allocating 99.9 billion yuan for local programs. Japan Bear Attacks: A bear attack in Fukushima injured four people, prompting school closures and renewed concern over wildlife encroachment. India Aviation Security: India’s DGCA tightened airport rules on photography and videography, warning of fines, confiscation, and possible no-fly listings for filming in restricted areas. India Economy Watch: India’s industrial production rose 4.9% in April, with manufacturing leading gains. India–US Trade Talks: India and the US are set to negotiate a trade deal framework, with tariff issues tied to Section 301 expected on the agenda. Philippines–China Maritime Tensions: China and the Philippines traded accusations over defense remarks as Japan and the Philippines deepen defense ties amid China’s activity in the South China Sea.

Japan Markets: SoftBank overtook Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable listed company, as shares hit an all-time high amid AI IPO chatter. Energy Security: Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi urged free and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz in talks with Iran, highlighting Japan’s heavy West Asia energy dependence. India Energy: NLC India and Reliance will assess underground lignite gasification in Gujarat to boost domestic gasified fuel and cut LNG reliance. China-Latin America: Wang Yi told Brazil China is ready to deepen China–Latin America cooperation, aiming to align modernization and Global South unity. China-US Media Row: China expelled a New York Times reporter after an event featuring Taiwan’s president, escalating Beijing–Washington information tensions. Health Outreach: Chinese medical teams expanded child health checks and schistosomiasis prevention education in Tanzania and Zanzibar. Pacific Watch: US hurricane forecasters tracked two potential eastern Pacific tropical systems. Geopolitics/Defense: Australia–Japan “strategic depth” talk signals deeper industrial and supply-chain planning for Indo-Pacific contingencies. India Healthcare: ESIC rolled out a nationwide online patient feedback system across hospitals and dispensaries.

Taiwan-U.S. Ties: KMT leader Cheng Li-wun says she’s “very willing” to meet U.S. President Trump during a trip aimed at rebuilding trust as Washington questions her party’s China stance and defense priorities. China-Japan Friction: Beijing urged high alert over Japanese “neo-militarism” and hit back at Tokyo’s defense remarks, while also condemning NYT coverage that it says boosts Taiwan separatism. China Space & Security: China marked a successful maiden flight for the Long March-12B rocket and rolled out Shenzhou-23 upgrades, as it also keeps pressure on regional flashpoints with patrols near disputed waters. Ebola Response: China dispatched emergency medical teams to Ebola-hit DRC, as WHO urged countries to reconsider travel curbs. India-Oman Trade: India’s CEPA with Oman took effect, positioning Oman as a Gulf “Plan B” gateway amid Hormuz-linked disruption fears. India Economy & Power: India’s manufacturing PMI hit a three-month high, while power demand surged to a record peak amid heat. Pacific Aviation: PNG’s Benedict Oraka was elected chair of the Pacific Aviation Safety Office for the next year. Sports: Bangladesh’s U-18 women beat Chinese Taipei 2-0 in the Asia Cup; India’s U20 athletics team finished second overall with 19 medals.

Japan–China Security Spat: Japan’s defence minister Shinjiro Koizumi pushed back on “new militarism” claims at the Shangri-La Dialogue, arguing Japan lacks nuclear arsenals yet is still accused of escalating. South China Sea Tensions: The U.S. Coast Guard joined Philippine forces in a Scarborough Shoal joint patrol, while China’s military and coast guard carried out combat readiness and law-enforcement patrols near the same hotspot. Philippines–China Diplomacy: At Shangri-La, a Chinese delegate pressed Manila on alleged contradictions over the South China Sea Code of Conduct; the Philippine defence chief responded without directly addressing the charge. Taiwan Flashpoint: China condemned Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil’s Taiwan visit, reiterating opposition to official exchanges with the island. Regional Weather Watch: Typhoon Jangmi is forecast to bring heavy rain and dangerous winds across western and eastern Japan, with airlines cancelling flights. Business & Trade: The U.S. moved to close a loophole that may have enabled advanced AI chip exports to Chinese entities abroad, while Japan expects a June wave of food and beverage price hikes. Philippines–Japan Links: Japan and the Philippines highlighted cooperation during Marcos Jr.’s recent state visit, including maritime security and investment pledges.

Japan-Philippines Security: A Japanese JMSDF ship made a three-day port call in Davao City, with naval drills aimed at boosting interoperability and regional security. China-Canada Reset: Beijing says ties with Canada are “fully restored,” with plans to resume political and security consultations after tariff and EV trade steps. China Nuclear Expansion: Satellite-linked reporting says China is building new nuclear launch pads and shelters in desert areas, expanding hardened deterrence infrastructure. US-China Messaging: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth toned down China rhetoric at Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, avoiding direct Taiwan mentions while stressing US strength. Philippines-China Caution: Manila’s defence chief says any warmer ties depend on whether Beijing runs a government “other countries can trust.” India-Myanmar Diplomacy: Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing begins talks in India on border security, connectivity and economic cooperation. India-Vietnam Defence: India and Vietnam have finalised a BrahMos deal, pushing India’s defence indigenisation and export ambitions. India Health Watch: NFHS-6 shows rising obesity and high blood sugar among adults, adding pressure to lifestyle disease prevention. Sports (Asia): England beat India in women’s T20Is to level the series 1-1, with Freya Kemp starring.

Shangri-La Dialogue: U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Asian allies to raise defence spending, warning of “rightful alarm” over China’s military buildup as China skipped its usual top-level presence. China-Iran: Iran says it will give special cooperation to Chinese and Russian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while criticising U.S. pressure tactics. India-Pakistan: A report says India’s long push to isolate Pakistan has largely failed, with Pakistan strengthening ties across major capitals. Myanmar-India: Myanmar President U Min Aung Hlaing began a five-day visit to India, starting with prayers at Bodh Gaya and set to meet Modi to shape a new roadmap. Semiconductors & AI (India): Kerala startup Netrasemi unveiled an indigenous AI system-on-chip, while India’s NITI Aayog released a 10-year semiconductor strategy aiming for a $120–150b value chain by 2035. Space (China): China’s Shenzhou-22 returned with 41kg of space-station samples for life, materials and combustion experiments. Water stress (India): India’s irrigation demand could nearly double by 2050, pushing the need for water budgeting and demand-based planning. EU tech sovereignty: Brussels drafts rules to cut reliance on U.S. cloud services and Chinese chips, risking fresh transatlantic friction. Sports: India’s women’s hockey team drew Australia’s series 2-2 after a narrow loss; in chess, Gukesh slipped after Carlsen’s win at Norway Chess.

Philippines–Japan Diplomacy: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. returned to Manila after a four-day state visit to Japan, calling it “constructive and highly productive,” with talks to upgrade ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and new maritime security and investment pledges. South China Sea Tensions: A Philippine defense official rejected China’s claims of selective targeting in recent raids, saying enforcement is based on alleged legal violations, not nationality, as China continues to accuse extra-regional actors of meddling. India–China Border Talks: India and China held the 35th WMCC meeting in Beijing, saying discussions were constructive and aimed at keeping peace along the border while preparing next expert-level talks on trans-border rivers. India Economy & Trade: RBI data showed forex reserves fell for a second straight week to $681.38bn, while India blocked China’s first WTO panel request over solar PLI incentives and certain technology import duties. EU–China De-risking: European commissioners discussed tougher steps to protect industry from surging Chinese imports and reduce dependence on Chinese chemicals, metals, and clean-tech supply chains. US–China Reciprocal Moves: The Trump administration revoked a Xinhua-linked journalist’s US visa after Beijing expelled a New York Times reporter. Japan Policy & Industry: Japan raised residency visa fee caps to 100,000 yen ($630) for standard status and passed a bill tightening foreign investment oversight.

Philippines–Japan Energy & Security: President Ferdinand Marcos met former PM Fumio Kishida in Tokyo to push renewable energy, low-carbon tech and long-term energy security under Japan’s POWERR Asia, with Manila also set to co-chair an Azec summit in November. Philippines–Japan Dealmaking: The two sides also signed a double taxation pact and agreed to deepen cooperation on AI, space, energy security and supply-chain resilience, alongside steps toward a GSOMIA and maritime boundary talks. Japan Markets & Economy: Japan’s Nikkei and Topix hit record highs as industrial output, retail sales and unemployment improved, while authorities spent 11.7tn yen to support the yen. Japan Demographics: Japan’s population fell to 123.05 million, with 45 prefectures shrinking and Tokyo/nearby areas still growing. India Climate & Food Risk: India’s monsoon forecast was cut to 90% of average, raising odds of severe water shortages and inflation/food stress. India Solar Push: India connected 40 lakh homes to rooftop solar under PM Surya Ghar, accelerating clean power uptake. China Tech & Policy: China issued marine biopharma guidelines urging AI use, and rolled out 29-digit digital IDs for humanoid robots. Regional Security: Australia urged more “strategic reassurance” after China sent only academics to the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Philippines-Japan Security Upgrade: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi elevated ties to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” pledging deeper maritime security, defense cooperation and economic/energy collaboration as South China Sea tensions simmer. Border Diplomacy: India and China held “constructive” talks on the LAC, saying border peace helped progress toward normalising relations. China Global Governance: Wang Yi said a UN-linked “Group of Friends of Global Governance” reached consensus on five points, including UN Charter principles and AI governance rules. China Surveillance Push: China plans to upgrade AI-enabled video surveillance for faster threat spotting, drawing rights concerns. AI Robotics Regulation: China unveiled a “digital ID” system for humanoid robots to track them across their lifecycle. Rare Earths Supply Shift: Australia’s Viridis says it’s pursuing Western offtake buyers for its Brazil mine, not China. Air Cargo Watch: IATA reported global air cargo demand rose 4% in April, with Asia-Pacific carriers driving growth despite Gulf disruptions. Sports—India vs England (Cricket): India beat England in the first women’s T20I by 38 runs, with Rodrigues and Bhatia starring. India Energy Policy: Research says India’s ethanol push has massively expanded farmland tied to fuel, reshaping crop choices.